Toronto/CMEDIA: Average Home sales and price weakness for Greater Toronto Area (GTA) is likely to persist for at least the first half of the year, the region’s real estate board said Wednesday.
Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) said that home sales for January fell 19.3 percent from a year earlier to 3,082 sales. The average selling price dipped 6.5 percent to $973,289, falling below the $1 million mark for the first time since January 2021.
In spite of the fact that active listings were up 8.1 percent to 17,975, new listings were down from a year earlier.
Average listing days on the market rose 21.6 percent to 45 days.
Subject to the improvement of consumer confidence, prices could stabilize in the latter half of this year, said TRREB, and the elevated supply will likely lead to lower average selling prices in the first half of 2026.
“The housing market reflects the tension many households are feeling as we look ahead to 2026,” said board president Daniel Steinfeld in a news release.
“Greater economic clarity in the months ahead could restore confidence and help unlock demand that has been building for several years.”
22 percent of respondents in the Greater Toronto Area, An Ipsos survey released by TRREB, said they were likely to buy a home in the next year, down from 27 percent in 2025.
With both interest rates and home prices being down, the affordability has improved, noted the TRREB outlook, many households will be less likely to commit to buying until Canada’s economic situation becomes less precarious.
A key driver of uncertainty is the trade relationship with the United States, as the U.S. President Donald Trump continues to threaten new tariffs on Canadian products.
A formal review of the trade agreement between Canada, the United States and Mexico is set for July.
Another significant factor for the housing market as well as a source of pressure recently is population growth in the GTA.
According to the report of Statistics Canada the country’s population fell in the third quarter of 2025, with Ontario seeing the largest drop of any province.
GTA rental market is also impacted by a pullback in temporary student permits in Ontario, said TRREB, leading to a net loss of over 100,000 non-permanent residents in the third quarter.
But the long-term outlook for population growth in the region continues to be positive.
Although some of the January statistics look discouraging, there are still signs of increased interest in areas like the Toronto core, said Cailey Heaps, president of the Heaps Estrin Real Estate Team.
“There’s definitely been a decrease in volume, and it does feel like the market is still under pressure, but we are seeing multiple offers again in the first time buyer segment,” she said in an interview.
She said that following the down period around the holidays, the new year often brings renewed interest , and more buyers are taking note of the price declines that have already happened in the market.
“We’re definitely still feeling pain in the marketplace, but I think that buyers have come to recognize the current position of the market,” said Heaps.
“I would feel anecdotally that buyers are feeling better about it, while sellers might be feeling less confident about listing.”
The average price of a detached home in the GTA was down 7.4 percent in Jan to $1,277,915 and the average condominium price was down 9.8 per cent to $604,759.
The retrieved prices have not only improved affordability, the Bank of Canada has lowered interest rates.
The central bank lowered its policy rate to 2.25 percent in Oct, having started 2025 at 3.25 percent.
Interest rates, however, are coming up less as a factor in conversations, possibly from fatigue around the subject despite its importance to affordability, Heaps said.
Instead the biggest factors holding back buyers seem to be either timing the market, which is very difficult, and the geopolitical uncertainty, she said.
“There’s also just people who are worried about the broader geopolitical … uncertainty in the world, who want more comfort around the direction where things are heading before they invest.”
