A proactive new tool that can help preserve old forests in British Columbia has been developed by University of Alberta researchers.
A new study gives crucial insight into where to focus conservation measures, by identifying areas of old-growth forest in areas predicted to be stable in the face of climate change. The work is published in the journal Ecosphere.
The approach laid out by the research shifts the focus toward what can still be protected, says Nick Pochailo, who led the study as part of his dual master’s degree in forestry through the Faculty of Agricultural, Life & Environmental Sciences.
“Old-growth forests located in areas of potential climatic stability offer exceptional long-term conservation value. By identifying these places, land managers can prioritize and plan conservation efforts more effectively.”
Defined as at least 140 to 250 years old in B.C., depending on the ecosystem, old-growth forests account for about 25% of the province’s forested areas. They’ve shrunk from 25 million hectares to about half that due to logging, as well as more severe and frequent wildfires, as well as pests like the mountain pine beetle, brought on by climate warming.
That makes strategic management and continuing conservation for old-growth areas increasingly important, says co-author Scott Nielsen, a professor of conservation biology who supervised the research.
“They provide vital habitat to certain wildlife, including at-risk or endangered species like mountain caribou and northern spotted owls, and they hold high cultural and recreational value for many people.”
How climate change impacts old-growth forests
To get a better understanding of how climate change could affect these forests, the researchers used computer models to predict how these ecosystems might shift by the 2050s, then mapped the changes against existing and future old-growth forests to geographically pinpoint areas most likely to survive.
From the analysis, they developed maps showing where this type of forest has the best chance of persisting, barring any disturbances such as logging or wildfires.
The analysis identified 110,545 square kilometers of old-growth forest that has the potential to increase naturally by up to an additional 69,410 square kilometers by 2055 if left undisturbed.
The study also showed that up to 54% of the province—and up to 63% of its existing old-growth forests—are located in regions that, by the 2050s, are expected to be within areas of climate stability, or “climate-change refugia.”
Conservation priorities and future planning
However, the research also shows the vulnerability of these forests, Pochailo adds.
“Less than 12% of B.C.’s current old growth is both protected and within climate refugia, with under 0.2% located in areas of high refugia probability.”
The blend of information can help identify new, high-priority areas for conservation, notes Leonardo Viliani, a Ph.D. student in the conservation biology program and a co-author on the research.
“It helps close gaps with planning, land-use management, where to harvest and where the next protected areas should be.”
The approach provided by the research could also help meet a federal pledge to preserve 30% of Canada’s land and oceans by 2030, Nielsen adds.
“It provides a tool for effective, data-driven conservation that can be extended to other old-growth forests here.”
Provided by University of Alberta
